This site shows electoral polling data by state, with the number of electoral votes added up. I think this early on we can discount the fact that one candidate or another might be ahead by X number of electoral votes (it shows Bush winning by 18). What is really interesting is if you sort by “Trend in 2004″ and look at the states which are really close.
There are six states where the difference is less than 3% (number of electoral votes listed in brackets): Arkansas (6), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21). In my mind, all these states are basically too close to call right now, and the rest of the states are probably unlikely to change significantly unless something major happens (which is not unlikely in today’s volatile climate). I would even venture to add New Jersey to the list, despite Bush’s 4% lead, simply because New Jersey (15) voted pretty solidly for Gore in 2000, and I’m sure Kerry has a good fighting chance there as well. Oregon and New Mexico also voted for Gore.
It will probably be Ohio’s 20 votes that Kerry will have to fight hardest for, while seeking to keep his slim lead in Florida and Pennsylvania. And, of course, we have to pray for no voting “irregularities” in those close states.